J.P. Lewis is an associate professor of political science at UNB Saint John. (Submitted)
One political scientist says he is not surprised to see two Saint John-area ridings flip back to Conservative from Liberal.
Rob Moore defeated Alaina Lockhart in Fundy Royal while John Williamson was victorious over Karen Ludwig in New Brunswick Southwest.
J.P. Lewis, an associate professor of political science at UNB Saint John, said the two ridings have historically been Conservative.
Lewis said most people thought it would be tough for Lockhart and Ludwig to hold on to their seats.
“I think 2015 was a bit of an anomaly because of the desire across the country to change the government and, at the time, [Liberal] Justin Trudeau was a very popular party leader,” said Lewis.
“There was a lot of momentum across the Atlantic Canadian region and some candidates were able to benefit from that.”
Looking throughout New Brunswick, Lewis said it was interesting to see how the federal results mirrored those of last year’s provincial election.
“You have the blue in the south and the red in the north, which is quite familiar to New Brunswickers, but then having a Green seat in Fredericton where David Coon has a provincial seat, and even the one spot the Liberals were able to hold on in the southern part of the province is the area the provincial Liberals held onto a seat in Saint John-Harbour, I find those results pretty fascinating,” he said.
The preliminary election results from the 2019 federal election. (Photo: Elections Canada)
The Liberals were shut out of Alberta and Saskatchewan, where all of the seats went to the Conservatives or the New Democratic Party.
Lewis said he is curious to see if Trudeau takes a harder pivot to issue of national unity as the regionalization, which has existed from previous results, has really crept in.
When it comes to minority federal governments, Lewis said he expects this one will be “pretty workable,” adding there seems to be a clear partnership between the Liberals and the NDP.
“I don’t think this is a precarious situation like we saw, say in New Brunswick in 2018, especially because the Liberals won the most seats,” he said.
“I think the real survival test will start to happen probably into 2020 and seeing if they’re going to get the votes for the budget.”
But for now, Lewis said he thinks it will seem as though the Liberals won a majority.
